Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 2.074396 2.197048 2.326114 2.472561 2.634745 2.809585 3.013298
2025-08-10 1.881208 2.048888 2.233813 2.454680 2.713730 3.011062 3.382845
2025-08-17 1.750565 1.941922 2.159673 2.429111 2.758368 3.154346 3.677538
2025-08-24 1.650470 1.856574 2.096815 2.402463 2.788559 3.271313 3.940329
2025-08-31 1.583285 1.802675 2.063849 2.404495 2.848042 3.423276 4.258316
2025-09-07 1.532592 1.763842 2.044391 2.418709 2.920076 3.593437 4.616843
2025-09-14 1.467097 1.702166 1.991455 2.384219 2.922040 3.664825 4.837233
2025-09-21 1.408092 1.645142 1.940512 2.347717 2.916400 3.722000 5.039175
2025-09-28 1.352052 1.589017 1.887413 2.304236 2.896413 3.754355 5.202663
2025-10-05 1.332175 1.578034 1.892044 2.338576 2.988101 3.959261 5.676013
2025-10-12 1.314826 1.569160 1.898412 2.374762 3.083907 4.178305 6.207724
2025-10-19 1.296878 1.558420 1.901267 2.405369 3.172573 4.393611 6.769585
2025-10-26 1.262638 1.525138 1.872508 2.389599 3.190121 4.495512 7.137059
2025-11-02 1.230644 1.493709 1.844934 2.373918 3.206383 4.596429 7.521966
2025-11-09 1.198027 1.460216 1.812980 2.349745 3.206772 4.668595 7.858555
2025-11-16 1.167138 1.428021 1.781517 2.324505 3.203259 4.732623 8.189214
2025-11-23 1.146646 1.409405 1.768492 2.326430 3.244460 4.882747 8.755803
2025-11-30 1.130871 1.396727 1.763318 2.339895 3.305629 5.076979 9.483058
2025-12-07 1.102300 1.365267 1.729780 2.307218 3.284685 5.107493 9.787098
2025-12-14 1.074597 1.334295 1.695970 2.272619 3.258148 5.124062 10.057918
2025-12-21 1.046284 1.301771 1.658934 2.231380 3.217417 5.107781 10.231938
2025-12-28 1.040065 1.300389 1.667683 2.263951 3.311052 5.382330 11.368619
2026-01-04 1.034551 1.299755 1.677361 2.298256 3.410127 5.681911 12.719857